Stock Picks vs Trip Picks

[RRUserious]

I think the flaws of railway travel are growing. Just as the number of bad equity investments are growing. Now you can't just "pick the market", you have to be selective when you invest. And when you plan train trips, I think you have to research the least troubled, most fun rides out there and take them. I traveled several lines in June. All three had problems, but EB had the biggest, then LSL was less troubled, then Maple Leaf had the least. So a person might have to get to the least troubled lines another way, and then just take the rides that are still fun. I think they are out there, but I don't think Amtrak is going to give you the best guidance. Travelers who are candid and honest are going to steer people clear of serious snags.

 

[the_traveler]

I think like stocks, a route can have good days and bad days. Yes, the EB has had trouble this year, but in all my previous trips, the EB went off without any problems. Will I stop taking the EB? No - in fact I have a trip planned on the EB this fall!

 

[RRUserious]

I think like stocks, a route can have good days and bad days. Yes, the EB has had trouble this year, but in all my previous trips, the EB went off without any problems. Will I stop taking the EB? No - in fact I have a trip planned on the EB this fall!

To me, that is like "buying low". Not every "buy low" stock purchase is a winner, but the prevailing wisdom says when the price has been rising for some time, it probably is NOT the best time to buy. Similarly, not every spring or summer ticket is a winner, but there are many, many reasons to expect the October ticket to be a winner. So a knowledgable train traveler might recommend that sort of trip over alternatives.

 

[williamflemming]

Also like stocks, if you research carefully and do everything to prepare your self things can still go wrong! Just like my first long haul trip on the CZ where the train was cancelled. I am so glad that didn't put me off Amtrak.

 

[RRUserious]

Absolutely. The best research in the world is short of a guarantee. But if all people did it, there would be a guarantee of fewer people screwed and honked off.

 

[Anderson]

This thread reminds me of the concept of a "value trap" in investing: A low-priced stock (compared to various valuation metrics) that gets stuck there and won't break out because of some nagging problem or another. A lot of Amtrak's "special offer" sales are like these...not too bad if they're going exactly where you want to go, but dubious values otherwise (such as the LSL sale, which apparently applies only CHI-BOS/NYP and only in coach, with no ability to upgrade).