Why not shorten the Auto Train schedule?

[BobWeaver]

In looking at the Auto Train, it has exceptional OTP for an LD train. Over the last 5 days, 53 arrived into Sanford no less than 53 minutes early every day, with most days putting the train into SFA more than an hour early. Similarly, 52 never arrived into Lorton less than 30 minutes early, with the peak being more than 2 hours early last week! I believe this may have been discussed in the past, but my search didn't turn up anything. Why not condense the schedule somewhat? I am very aware that an early train is better than a late train, but isn't an arrival 2 hours early a bit on the excessive side? It seems to me that a schedule that is shortened by even 15-20 minutes would be enough to sway some new customers into riding the Auto Train (not that it's having problems attracting riders in its present form by any means). Is there some kind of set time that CSX dispatchers want to run this train in? Do the trains run closer to schedule in the summer when there are heat restrictions and what not?

 

[Anderson]

I don't think 15-20 minutes would do much (unless you're doing a later departure). Two hours actually seems shocking to me...but then again, if we had more trains that were true "Limiteds", I suspect this would happen more.

 

[rrdude]

And you may or may not be taking into account that the AT will often (or at least used to) leave the terminal early, if all customers are checked in.....

 

[VentureForth]

Honestly, I don't think there is much point to it. This is a train like no other, where arrival schedule is just not all that critical. There are no connectig trains, and there is no taxi stand for cabbies to congregate waiting for an early (or late) train. And, it's not real likely you'll inconvenience folks who may come to pick you up. If you're early, suprise them at their home! It's very much a "you'll get there when you get there" train. And, when you get there, your transportation is alreay arranged.

The most important thing is to leave on time, and to rrdude's point, early if everyone is checked in and ready to go. After that, it's only Amtrak's time on the other end to get the train turned around and staged for the return trip. And since it is at the same time every day, it doesn't really help much if the train comes in earlier.

Finally, there are times that weather can greatly affect this train, and it DOES run late on occassion. So, how nice is it for the hundreds that ride it daily, for the most part, get to claim this to be one heckuva service.

 

[haolerider]

In looking at the Auto Train, it has exceptional OTP for an LD train. Over the last 5 days, 53 arrived into Sanford no less than 53 minutes early every day, with most days putting the train into SFA more than an hour early. Similarly, 52 never arrived into Lorton less than 30 minutes early, with the peak being more than 2 hours early last week! I believe this may have been discussed in the past, but my search didn't turn up anything. Why not condense the schedule somewhat? I am very aware that an early train is better than a late train, but isn't an arrival 2 hours early a bit on the excessive side? It seems to me that a schedule that is shortened by even 15-20 minutes would be enough to sway some new customers into riding the Auto Train (not that it's having problems attracting riders in its present form by any means). Is there some kind of set time that CSX dispatchers want to run this train in? Do the trains run closer to schedule in the summer when there are heat restrictions and what not?

I think the current timing is perfect. It gives the departing passengers in Lorton plenty of time to get to the station and depart at a good time to allow them to get settled and then have dinner. The arrival into Sanford is a good time to give them plenty of time to get their cars and set off on whatever drive they have to their final destination. Early arrivals can sometimes upset this schedule, especially into Sanford early, since everyone wants to get their continental breakfast at a reasonable time.

 

[rrdude]

Piling on to VentureForth's point, for the "millions of unwashed" who only take Amtrak via the AT, and those Amtrak first-timers whose only experience, ever will be the AT, coming in early is a nice bit of PR.

All their friends and family will ask them, "....So how was your train trip.........." and invariably, they may reply, ".......And we were even early arriving..."

'Course, that didn't happen to my neighbors, they HATED the trip.

 

[BobWeaver]

I definitely agree with all of the above points, even the ones that seem to slightly imply the "If it isn't broken, don't fix it" mentality which surely applies here. I agree, an early arrival is better than a late one, especially when you have your ground transportation already following you a few cars back. It just seems to me that with a train that consistently runs early by often times a large margin, Amtrak management and marketing would want to tighten the schedule somewhat so as to make the train slightly more competitive with the comparable drive, which would perhaps yield even higher ridership. 52/53 are 17.5 hour trips, whereas driving it would be 13.5 hours tops. I realize that the train is unique and to many who take it, it is a part of the greater vacation/trip itself and the timing isn't a big deal. But to those who only look at the driving time versus train time, especially if they are are unfamiliar with the latter's OTP, 4 hours' difference may not be worth taking the train. I've always thought that sliding the departure time towards 4:15-4:30 or so would be beneficial, as it would give working adults that much more time to be at their jobs, especially those coming down from DC, but would not greatly affect the existing onboard experience as far as meals are concerned. Equally, a scheduled arrival of 9:00-9:15 may appeal more to travelers, as they can get back to their jobs earlier in the workday, get to the Disney parks earlier, etc.

Regardless, I do realize that an early arrival is better than a late one, just as I suppose it is better than being right on time, and that schedule padding is there for a reason. But, I still think that additional riders could perhaps be gained from even a slight scheduled trip time decrease. How often does Auto Train sell out anyway?

 

[the_traveler]

The driving time from Lorton to Sanford may indeed be 13.5 hours, but that's not how I think. I live in RI and if I were to drive to FL, I'd stop at a hotel in NC or SC, not in Lorton. And someone driving from NYC or PHL probably would not stop for the night around Lorton either. So you really can't compare train time vs driving time!

 

[Anderson]

Ladies and gentlemen, I am proud to announce that we officially have a bad joke: On most days, the Auto Train roomettes going south over the next month are on the low bucket ($126) while the Silvers are sold out or on $400-ish roomettes. As a result, it is cheaper to take the Auto Train with a normal car than to take the Silvers going south (with the exception of one upcoming weekend...I believe that is Palm Sunday weekend which is sold out).

Of course, the reason for this is that most of the traffic is northbound: The Northbound Auto Train is sold out on 21 of the next 30 days; on six of the remaining days, all that is left is coach, and of the remaining three, two are sold out in coach. Once you get into May, this falls off, but still...

 

[VentureForth]

Looking at AmSnag, in the next 30 days, the Autotrain is sold out twice. One day has only a couple of bedrooms at the highest buckets available. In addition, family bedrooms are sold out for 10 dates (only 4 per train?).

At this snapshot in time, the following are the bucket rates available for the next 30 days (coach only):

Bucket 1 ($93): 16

Bucket 2 ($116): 2

Bucket 3 ($146): 6

Bucket 4 ($228): 3

Sold Out: 12

Interesting how the buckets are priced - Bucket 2 is $23 more than 1, 3 is $30 more than 2, 4 is $82 more than 3...

 

[GlobalistPotato]

Well what is the capacity of the AT, passenger and vehicle wise? Does Amtrak make an estimate on future ridership, assign X number of cars to the future train, then wait for the tickets to sell out?

Is it possible for Amtrak to add extra cars if the future train is exceeding projected ridership?

And how high does the ridership have to be for the AT to break even?

 

[Randy]

It was late today - both directions. Over an hour late northbound. Anybody know why?

 

[dlagrua]

There is no need to modify the AutoTrain schedule. It has 2 additional hours built in for any possible delays. On some days its very early and on others it arrives "on time" If it is exceptionally early it will stay a bit longer at the Florence N.C. stop for 30+ minutes during the crew change. I've been on Autotrain trips where a storm knocked out the track signals in VA and the train crept along at 5 or 10 MPH for an hour. Regardsless we still pulled into Sanford on time. The trip is already as short as it can be but unlike regular passenger trains you need to arrive an hour or two before boarding (for car loading) and you can wait up to an hour in Sanford for car unloading. The Autotrain carries 4 sleeper cars some of which are all bedrooms plus a crew car , three diner cars, three lounge cars, four coaches and many more auto carriers. Fully loaded the Amtrak Autotrain can be as long as 3/4 mile and made up of 60 cars. Is is the most profitable long distance train that Amtrak has. We have made four trips on it and each one has been enjoyable. We also rate the dinner on the Autotrain to be among the best that Amtrak has to offer. The cold continental breakfast is one of the worst so we bring along some Hummous, for the bagels.

 

[Crescent ATN & TCL]

Does the Auto Train truly have a real schedule anyway? The schedule basically says show up by 3pm and you will end up at your destination by 9:30am. Sounds like a freight train schedule more than a passenger train schedule.

Amtrak could work with CSX on speed restrictions or work with FRA to raise max speed for the auto carriers to shorten the trip allowing shorter times. I think they would do well to extend check-in to 5pm and cut arrival back to 8am or 9am. You wouldn't want to cut the schedule too short. The Auto Train is essentially a hotel that delivers you and your car to Lorton or Sanford while you sleep. If you cut too much passengers won't have time to get supper and breakfast, sleep well and get showers and dress before its time to exit and get their cars.

 

[fairviewroad]

I think they would do well to extend check-in to 5pm

The problem with extending the check-in is that you increase the chance that people will get caught up in PM rush-hour traffic (esp. in the Lorton area) on their

way to the station. Human nature is to push things as close as possible and someone who thinks they'll arrive at 4:45 p.m. will invariably run late, leading to

many "never agains" once they miss the cut-off.

 

[jis]

What happens to Auto Train is pretty typical of what happens to trains that have a point to point run over a long distance with scheduled stops only at the two ends, and one or more service stops, which don;t appear in the schedule on the way. While in US there is only one such train, in India there are a couple of dozen such which run 600 to 1500 miles non-stop per schedule. These are the so called Duronto Expresses which connect major cities with non-stop service, mostly sleepers. They very often arrive way earlier than scheduled, and yet the padding is necessary to account for those bad days.

Incidentally this is not uncommon on ultra-long haul airline flights either. The block times have to account for adverse wind conditions, but often wind conditions are not so bad so one arrives an hour or more ahead of schedule. No one is known to have complained about that yet , though getting in at 3:45 am instead of 4:45 am into Newark from Delhi can be a bit unnerving

 

[BobWeaver]

Does the Auto Train truly have a real schedule anyway? The schedule basically says show up by 3pm and you will end up at your destination by 9:30am. Sounds like a freight train schedule more than a passenger train schedule.

Amtrak could work with CSX on speed restrictions or work with FRA to raise max speed for the auto carriers to shorten the trip allowing shorter times. I think they would do well to extend check-in to 5pm and cut arrival back to 8am or 9am. You wouldn't want to cut the schedule too short. The Auto Train is essentially a hotel that delivers you and your car to Lorton or Sanford while you sleep. If you cut too much passengers won't have time to get supper and breakfast, sleep well and get showers and dress before its time to exit and get their cars.

That's what my thinking is, on both parts, although I think an initial extension to 4:30 PM would be more appropriate than 5:00 PM.

There is no need to modify the AutoTrain schedule. It has 2 additional hours built in for any possible delays. On some days its very early and on others it arrives "on time" If it is exceptionally early it will stay a bit longer at the Florence N.C. stop for 30+ minutes during the crew change. I've been on Autotrain trips where a storm knocked out the track signals in VA and the train crept along at 5 or 10 MPH for an hour. Regardsless we still pulled into Sanford on time. The trip is already as short as it can be but unlike regular passenger trains you need to arrive an hour or two before boarding (for car loading) and you can wait up to an hour in Sanford for car unloading. The Autotrain carries 4 sleeper cars some of which are all bedrooms plus a crew car , three diner cars, three lounge cars, four coaches and many more auto carriers. Fully loaded the Amtrak Autotrain can be as long as 3/4 mile and made up of 60 cars. Is is the most profitable long distance train that Amtrak has. We have made four trips on it and each one has been enjoyable. We also rate the dinner on the Autotrain to be among the best that Amtrak has to offer. The cold continental breakfast is one of the worst so we bring along some Hummous, for the bagels.

The very early days seem to outnumber the on-time days by no small margin. With this, and with OTP approaching 97% for 2010, 2 hours' worth of additional padding hours does start to seem a bit on the excessive side, even though I know Amtrak choosing this amount of padding has a real reason behind it. As a passenger, I do want my train's schedule to be as realistic as reasonably possible. You make a valid point about the required arrival times for passengers because of the required vehicle loading times, which makes me further wonder why the departure isn't pushed back at least some minutes in the afternoon, especially to further accommodate passengers coming from longer distances.

On a completely different note, I thought about whether a kind of standby ticket would ever work on 52/53. That is, sell x amount of standby tickets per train for a seat with no vehicle. Because a vehicle is required to take Auto Train, Amtrak does alienate some its potential customer base. A customer would reserve a standby ticket ahead of time on Amtrak.com, but no actual monetary purchase would be made, and the purchase would not affect the number of seats available to reserve on the train to paying customers. On the day of departure, the passenger would go to the station with the valueless standby ticket and after all vehicles and their parties have boarded, station staff would determine if excess coach seats or sleeper cars are available. The current bucket price would be made known for the journey and the passenger would have a choice on whether or not to actually purchase the itinerary. While this would increase ridership/revenue on the Auto Train, it could probably also help with some of the Silver Service capacity issues. Thoughts?

 

[gswager]

Other possibility that the AT arrives early is how many freight trains are on the line, depending on the economy.

 

[Train2104]

A few years ago they extended the schedule by an hour in agreement with CSX. If they didn't remove that extra hour after CSX work completed, that's probably why its running early.

 

[the_traveler]

I'd much rather arrive early than late.

I know it's not the same thing, but the SWC "arrives" into LAX about 8 AM and the CS departs at 10:15 AM. But almost every time I've been on the SWC, I've arrive LAX between 7 and 7:30 AM! It make worrying about "Am I going to make the connection?" a lot easier!

 

[AlanB]

In addition, family bedrooms are sold out for 10 dates (only 4 per train?).

There are always 5 family rooms at a minimum, and often 6.

The Autotrain carries 4 sleeper cars some of which are all bedrooms plus a crew car , three diner cars, three lounge cars, four coaches and many more auto carriers.

The Auto Train always runs with a minimum of 5 sleepers, 2 of which are the Deluxe Sleepers that feature only Bedrooms on the upper level. And of course it runs with a Trans/Dorm too, although rooms in the Trans/Dorm are never sold since there are so many crew members on the AT and they fill up the dorm.

During peak times they run with 6 sleepers.

The sleepers are arranged with the 2 Deluxe sleepers bracketing the diner & lounge cars. Then the southern end will have 2 regular sleepers, while the northern end will have 1 or 2 regular sleepers depending on the demand.

 

[AlanB]

The very early days seem to outnumber the on-time days by no small margin. With this, and with OTP approaching 97% for 2010, 2 hours' worth of additional padding hours does start to seem a bit on the excessive side, even though I know Amtrak choosing this amount of padding has a real reason behind it. As a passenger, I do want my train's schedule to be as realistic as reasonably possible. You make a valid point about the required arrival times for passengers because of the required vehicle loading times, which makes me further wonder why the departure isn't pushed back at least some minutes in the afternoon, especially to further accommodate passengers coming from longer distances.

Yes, people want the schedule to be as realistic as possible, but they'd also rather be early than late. So it's just better to have that extra padding and hope not to need it it, than it is to remove it and be late.

On a completely different note, I thought about whether a kind of standby ticket would ever work on 52/53. That is, sell x amount of standby tickets per train for a seat with no vehicle. Because a vehicle is required to take Auto Train, Amtrak does alienate some its potential customer base. A customer would reserve a standby ticket ahead of time on Amtrak.com, but no actual monetary purchase would be made, and the purchase would not affect the number of seats available to reserve on the train to paying customers. On the day of departure, the passenger would go to the station with the valueless standby ticket and after all vehicles and their parties have boarded, station staff would determine if excess coach seats or sleeper cars are available. The current bucket price would be made known for the journey and the passenger would have a choice on whether or not to actually purchase the itinerary. While this would increase ridership/revenue on the Auto Train, it could probably also help with some of the Silver Service capacity issues. Thoughts?

An interesting idea, but there are several issues that I see.

1) Even on standby, I'd want to know what price I'm paying before going all the way down to the station. If they're going to do this, then the price should be locked in at the time of the reservation IMHO.

2) Keep in mind that on many days they already know that the train isn't sold out. Yes on days where they did sell out, you'd have to hope that someone no shows and you get on. But there are plenty of days where it wouldn't matter.

3) This is the big issue and if you will, hole in the idea. There is only limited public transportation at Lorton and zero at Sanford. So most people would have no way of getting to/from the train.

 

[Ryan]

a train that consistently runs early by often times a large margin,

What's your data source besides looking at the last 5 days? What's the average arrival time over the last year? What percentage of the time has the train arrived early in that time period? More than 30 minutes early?
Unless you can answer those questions, your entering premise is wrong.

Looking at AmSnag, in the next 30 days, the Autotrain is sold out twice.

You need to look at Northbound this time of year. We're taking the Star instead of the AT at the end of the month because it's impossible to get home. It's sold out 23 of the next 30 days headed north.

Of the 7 remaining days, 4 are coach only, 1 is family room only, 1 is coach/family room and 1 is coach/roomette.

 

[Anderson]

I'm embarrassed to admit that, after looking over the situation with buckets and with sold-out Silvers, I've pondered doing a one-way rental to Florida to take the Auto Train: A low-bucket roomette plus the auto charge plus the rental fee would be just about at a break-even with the high-bucket Silvers.

A second thought, in light of the standby tickets: Amtrak might want to look at selling those "no-car" tickets strictly in the "against the flow" direction (southbound in March/April; northbound in October/November). Lock them in with a higher bucket setup and keep them strictly limited until you're close to the train's departure date (to allow for gluts of car-carrying passengers on some weekends), but at least putting some in there would make sense because of the one-way nature of a lot of their traffic (down in the fall, up in the spring).

 

[AlanB]

A second thought, in light of the standby tickets: Amtrak might want to look at selling those "no-car" tickets strictly in the "against the flow" direction (southbound in March/April; northbound in October/November). Lock them in with a higher bucket setup and keep them strictly limited until you're close to the train's departure date (to allow for gluts of car-carrying passengers on some weekends), but at least putting some in there would make sense because of the one-way nature of a lot of their traffic (down in the fall, up in the spring).

But again, no car, no way to get to/from the Sanford station. There is no public transportation near Sanford.

And only very limited public transit near Lorton.